Project Estimation Techniques: Handle Uncertainty

Estimation has a built-in paradox: sponsors want a budget and a deadline early, when uncertainty is at its peak. Most estimation failure comes from biases, not bad math, and from casual numbers that quietly harden into commitments. This course gives you structured techniques, explicit reserves, and the language to present forecasts that hold up under scrutiny.

Who this course is for

• Project managers asked for budgets and deadlines before the scope is fully known
• PMs whose early estimates keep turning into commitments
• Anyone who faces pressure from sponsors to shrink an estimate

What you'll be able to do

• Explain the cone of uncertainty and guard against optimism bias and anchoring
• Select among six techniques: expert judgment, analogous, parametric, bottom-up, three-point, and Delphi
• Apply the PERT formula and roll up expected values and standard deviations to the project level
• Combine techniques and separate contingency reserves from management reserves instead of hiding padding
• Communicate estimates as ranges with confidence levels, hold the line under pressure, and use lessons learned as a feedback loop

Complete the video and knowledge check to earn up to 3.0 PDUs, credited from your recorded learning time.